Analysis on the development of China's steel marke

2022-10-15
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Analysis of the development of China's steel market in August 2012

in July, the steel market experienced a subduction decline, followed by an oversold rebound, just as the roller coaster market surprised businesses. In the second week of August, steel prices have maintained a consolidation pattern, with futures and spot markets moving in the opposite direction

some steel traders said that the steel market in August will not end in Abu Dhabi as in July. The sharp, rapid and sharp decline of steel prices by more than 100 yuan a week will not reappear, and the emergence of "oversold rebound" cannot be ruled out. Some operators said that the current steel price has entered the "bottoming period", which is in the bottom area. There is no room for deep decline. If it does not fall, it will be stable, and if it is stable, it will tend to rise. As some businesses have said, "it is not terrible that the steel price will fall. The price will make progress while maintaining stability. The terrible thing is that there is no bottom; only when there is a bottom can it hit the bottom and rebound." This is the complex of steel traders who are eager to rise at present, and it is also the expectation and expectation of many businesses that the steel price will stabilize and rebound in August

can the expectations of steel traders be realized? According to the analysis of insiders, according to the current contradiction between supply and demand and the operating situation of the steel market, the whole steel market will not improve much in August, and the bull market of "rapid market recovery and sharp price rise" may be difficult to show. However, the panic sharp and sharp decline in July will not reappear, and it is likely to consolidate at the bottom of the region, perhaps return to a reasonable price. After a period of consolidation, there may be a wave of upward market in September. Therefore, August is a period when steel prices are stable in the bottom region

the "three low and one high" of low demand, low supply, low price and high cost will be the basic characteristics of the domestic steel market in the second half of the year. It is expected that the steel price is expected to recover in August and September. The main reason is that in the second half of the year, a series of "steady growth" policies and measures issued by the state have gradually taken effect, and domestic market demand is expected to rebound. In addition, private investment is encouraged, small and micro enterprises are supported, capital supply is improved, and fully automated manufacturing can be achieved. The implementation of these policies is also conducive to the release of downstream industry demand for steel. In addition, the current steel market price is in the bottom area, and there is little room for further decline in the raw material market price, which to some extent supports the stabilization of steel market price in the second half of the year. In view of the existence of these factors, and after entering July, the steel market price fell sharply, which is conducive to breaking the dull situation of the domestic steel market. With the sharp and rapid decline of domestic steel market prices in July and the completion of steel factory contracts, it is expected that the domestic steel market is expected to recover in August and September

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